For the weekend 14th May'21-Friday... Updated on 09.05.21, Sunday-6.03 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on negative note at 14481.05, made a weekly low 14416.25 on Monday, thereafter, the Index moved up till 14863.05 and closed the week at 14823.15 on positive note with weekly gain 192.05 points i.e., 1.31%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, all the major sectoral indices were traded on positive bias, except Nifty Realty. On the positive side, Nifty Metal was leading with the weekly gain by 10.06%, followed by Nifty IT gained 2.36%, Nifty pharma gained 2.06%, Nifty Auto gained 1.85%, Nifty FMCG gained 1.49%, Nifty Energy gained 1.47%, Nifty Financial Services gained 1.36%, finally Nifty Bank marginally gained 0.37%. On the other hand, the Nifty Realty lost marginallly by -0.63%. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on positive note with weekly gain by 1.45% and Nifty Smallcap Index also closed with a weekly gain by 2.01%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week conitnued as a net seller in the Equity segment, they sold to the tune of Rs.4792.50 crore on the net basis; whereas, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.2135.23 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not.

USD Vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $74.20, made weekly high at $74.28, thereafter, it has seen a drop till $73.17 and closed with negative note at $73.32. This week, the USD Vs INR should take support at $73.17-73.07, it moves and sustain below $73.07 then the USD may re-visit $72.87-72.67-72.45-72.28 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves above $73.60-73.88 then the pull back rally may take the USD to $74.28-74.37-74.47-74.51-74.61-74.86-75.04 in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front, as well as, on the domestic front, other than domestic datas such as IIP for March, Annual Inflation for April, both are expeccted on 12th May and WPI Inflation for April is expected on 14th May, further the India Inc. Q4(Jan-Mar'21) remaining corporate results and Covid19 developments. 

Q4 Earnings: The India Inc. Q4(Jan-Mar'21) corporate results, so far 318 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q4 results, on QoQ basis the Net profit seen a drop by -4.10% when compares with last quarter i.e, the Net Profit of these 318 companies were at Rs.83,818.40 crore Vs. Rs.87,387.60 crore (Q3-Sep-Dec'20). Likewise, on YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth about 30.30% i.e., Rs.83,818.40, last year these 318 companies made a Net profit Rs.64,325.10 crore. The major drop in Net Profit this quarter due to higher payment of Tax, these 318 companies paid Tax worth about Rs.25,073 Vs.23,040.90 crore during last quarter, so the tax part dent the Net Profit to the negative zone, though the Sales/Income has seen a positive growth about 13.40% i.e., Rs.499,304.90 Vs. 428,392.90 crore during the last quarter. This week, the major corporate companies Q4 results are expected such as, Godrej Consumer, Asian Paints, Siemens, Apollo Tyres, Jindal steel, Lupin, Voltas, Cipla, Dr Reddy etc.

Covid19: The Covid-19 second wave spreading steadily, as of saturday the country witnessed everyday morethan 4 lakhs positive cases, which is pushed India’s tally of infection to 222,96,414, while active cases crossed the 37-lakh mark, according to the Union Health Ministry data updated on Saturday, the death toll rose to 2,42,362 with a record 4092 more fatalities in a day. Almost all major states imposed 7-14 day lock down, the major states under complete lockdown are: Punjab, Uttrakhand, Jharkhand, Bihar, Haryana, Rajasthan, Delhi, UP, MP, Megalaya, Mizoram, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Odhisa, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamilnadu, Goa and Pudhucherry and other states are in partial lock down, the shortage of Oxygen has come down and its related death also has come down, but the major chanllege to over come the rising Oxygen demand is a big question. We will have to wait and see the further developments this week. 

Crude Oil: Crude Oil prices moved down from $66.50 to 64 per barrel and hovering around $65, as writen the domestic Petrol & Disel prices, started to move up after state elections, since the International Crude price is steady at $65 and USD rates also hoveing around $73 as against INR.

Price Earnings: The price valuation i.e,, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has come down from the last week level i.e., 32.21 times and settled on Friday at 30.23 times, if the India Inc., Q4 results are not showing any good numbers, then Nifty Index may see further price correction till 14000-13600 till it may trade in a wide range between 14400-15200. 

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio: Market breadth, last week seen in positive zone, last week out of 2025 stocks were traded daily on an average basis, 5290 stocks were advanced and 4320 stocks were declined, the ADR maintained 1.22 times, in the overall Nifty stocks, especially in Nifty50 stocks, the ADR has been maintained at 1.71 times with 157 advances and  92 declines. This datas infers that the more action is happened in Nifty50 stocks. 

F&O Cues: The Nifty futures was settled at premium by 46.40 points points from the last week premium level 59.70 points, the Nifty futures OI seen at 11279550 when compares with the last week level i.e., 10028100. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) seen at 0.83, the  maximum PUT open interest was seen in at 14700 strike price and CALL open interest seen in 14900 strike price, it indicates that, the Nifty may take support this week 14700 and 14900 may act as strong resistance, above 14900, then next hurdle seen at 15200-15300 and any weakness below 14700, then 14600-14400 are possible down side support levels.

This week Nifty Trend: The Nifty index may find support this week near 14600-14485, any further down move below 14485 then, the Index may re-visit 14425-14365-14260-14150 levels in the near term. On the other hand the resistance seen at 14985-15050, if the Index moves above  15050 then, it may try to re-test 15160-15220-15330 levels.  

Special Mention: It seems, Covid further developments and its related moves such as stimulus measures etc., by GOI and India Inc. Q4 results are set the further direction on the Nifty Index movement, the Nifty could test 14900-15050 levels in the near term, further strong move above 15050, then the Index may re-test 15200-15330 levels. On the other hand 14750-14620 may act as strong support, below 14620 then the Index may re-visit 14416-14150-13960-13600 on the lower side. 

Tading Strategy: The Investor/trader, try to re-invest in Nifty50 stocks, when the Nifty Index moves to 14200-14000-13600 levels for 5-15% return on short to medium term perspective.

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Wishing you for a safe and secured with profitable trading