For the weekend 18th Sep'20-Friday... Updated on 12.09.20, Saturday : 07.30 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index as expected and written last week, opened with flat note near our support band i.e, 11330-11290, the index tried to cross 11450 levels, but unable to move up, on 09th Sep'20-Wednesday, opened with a gap down and tested our further support level i.e., 11230-11165, made a low at 11185.15 and took major support near that level and moved once again till 11493.50 on Friday and closed at 11464.45 with a gain 130.60 points i.e.,1.15%. As written in the last week outlook, the Index took support at 11200, I was anticipated this, mentioned this trading band, i.e., between 11200-11600, the Nifty Index moved near 11500 and closed with positive bias.

This week Nifty Trend: The Nifty index may open on Monday i.e., 14th Sep'20, on a flat to positive note, subject to the Asian market opening move, to test 11490-11525, if open, surpass and sustain above 11525 then, the immediate resistance seen at 11560-11585-11625-11665-11725-11800 levels. On the other hand, the immediate support lies at 11400-11340 any further move below 11340 then, the Index may re-test 11290-11250-11220-11185-11110 levels.

Key Events: This week major key events are expected in the domestic front, the August month Inflatiion data, which is expected on 14th Sep-Monday, the US Fed Interest Rate decision is expected on 16th Sep-Wednesday, other than that no other major key events are expected in the global front. The India Inc., Q1-June'20 remaining results are also plays an important role in the Nifty index further movement, as of 12th Sep'20, around 2535 out of 4268 companies already, announced their results, the Net profit seen at 10% on Quarter on Quarter-QoQ basis and maintain its subdued performance by -60% on Year on Year-YoY basis, the QoQ performance has dropped from the last week level i.e., 12.70% to 10%, shows that the India Inc., net profit not improved further, the corporates who declared their results last week mostly showed negative performance, hence the trend once again moving southwards, we must wait and watch remaining corporates around 300 or more are expected to announce their results this week. 

Special Mention: Last week, on Friday the Index of Industrial Production-IIP data for July'20 released, the number shows an improvement from June month data -15.80% whereas in Jul'20 it was at -10.40, we can infers from this data that, the production activity getting momentum, it may improve further in August and September due to the festival seasons are nearing. Though the Covid19, cases are surging one side, we moved in to the second place after the USA, but the Market is ignoring this for a long time.  As well as the Nifty premium valuation in terms of Price Earnings-PE is lies around 33-32 times, which is the causing concern. The SEBI recent move on 'Asset Allocation of Multi Cap Funds', the multi cap fund is now required to invest in equities and equity realated instruments with a minimum of 75% from the existing liimit of 65%, this may help the Nifty Index may see some inflow from DIIs. By considering the above factors, I expect the Nifty Index coming week may try to move up to re-test 11625-11735-11800 and it looks 11400-11200 may act as a good support. Further, weakness only below 11200, may drag the index till 11100-10900 levels in the near term.

Sector wise performance: Last week, the major sectoral Indices has given mixed performance, the Nifty Energy (3.29%) and Nifty IT (3.19%) were the major contributors to save the Nifty Index from the low level, Nifty FMCG (0.47%) and Nifty Pharma (0.28%) closed with marginal gain and Nifty Metal (-2.74%), Nifty Realty (-2.32%), Nifty Bank (-2.31%) and Nifty Auto (-0.50%) were closed the week with negative bias.

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week continued the selling mode and marginally sold to the tune of Rs.108.36 crores on the net basis whereas, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, continued as a net selller and sold to the tune of Rs.1501.31 crores on the net basis in the equity segment, the FIIs stopped the vigrous selling last week, we should wait and watch how they behave coming week, whereas the DIIs also in selling mode. The USD Vs INR depreciated till $73.96 and bounced once again from $73.01 and closed at $73.43 on Friday, further appreciation or depreciation depends on breaking either side i.e., above $73.79-73.96 on higher side and lower side support seen $73.11-73.01, below $73.01 then, it may re-test $72.71.

Tading Strategy: The Investor/trader who invested last week in Nifty 50 stocks, when the Nifty Index was traded at 11200, may starts to book partial profit for a short term gain about 5-10% this week, if Nifty Index moves near 11600-11700 levels. This a traders market, to trade for short term gains, rather to wait for long term basis.

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