For the weekend 28th May'21-Friday... Updated on 22.05.21, Sunday-7.30 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on positive note at 14756.25 made a weekly low 14725.35 on Monday, thereafter, the Index moved up throughout the week and made weekly high at 15190 and closed the week at 15175.30 on positive note with weekly gain 497.50 points i.e., 3.39%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, all the major sectoral indices were traded on positive bias, except Nifty FMCG. On the positive side, Nifty Bank was leading with the weekly gain by 7.58%, followed by Nifty Realty gained 6.72%, Nifty Financial Services gained 6.02%, Nifty auto gained 5.12%, Nifty Energy gained 3.61%, Nifty IT gained 2.02% Nifty Pharma & Nifty Metal marginally gained by 0.78% & 0.15% respectively. On the other hand, the Nifty FMCG marginally lost by -0.26%. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on positive note with weekly gain by 4.31% and Nifty Smallcap Index closed with a weekly gain by 3.75%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week conitnued as a net seller in the Equity segment, they sold to the tune of Rs.2113.90 crore on the net basis; whereas, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.669.42 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not.

USD Vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $73.28, made weekly high at $73.71 thereafter, it has moved down throughout the week till $72.77 and closed with negative note at $72.91. This week, the USD Vs INR should take support at $72.77-72.66, it moves and sustain below $72.66 then the USD may re-visit $72.52-72.46-72.26-72.05-71.76 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves above $73.12-73.20 then the up move above $73.20, may take the USD to $73.53-73.66-73.71-73.88-73.97-74.15 in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front, as well as, on the domestic front, other than the India Inc. Q4(Jan-Mar'21) remaining corporate results and Covid19 developments. 

Q4 Earnings: The India Inc. Q4(Jan-Mar'21) corporate results, so far 662 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q4 results, on QoQ basis the Net profit moved to positive zone by 15.30% when compares with last quarter i.e, the Net Profit of these 662 companies were at Rs.132,673.70 crore Vs. Rs.115,085.40 crore (Q3-Sep-Dec'20). Likewise, on YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth about 202.30% i.e., Rs.132,673.70, last year these 662 companies made a Net profit Rs.43,887.70 crore, the major changes in the Net Profit on YoY basis, purely based on the lower base effect in March' 2020.

Covid19: The Covid-19 second wave has continusely witnessing declining trend, as of today the country witnessed everyday covid positive between 2.50-3 lakhs, the death toll rose to 299,266 with less than 4000 fatalities in a day. We will have to wait and see the further developments this week. 

Crude Oil: Crude Oil prices moved down from $67 to 61.50 per barrel and hovering around $63-64, the domestic Petrol & Disel prices continue to move up, since the International Crude price is steady at $63-64 and USD rates also hoveing around $72-73 as against INR.

Price Earnings: The price valuation i.e,, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has come down from the last week level i.e., 29.79 times and settled on Friday at 29.48 times. then Nifty Index may see further up move till 15300-15500. 

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio: Market breadth, last week seen in positive zone, last week out of 2051 stocks were traded daily on an average basis, 5801 stocks were advanced and 4028 stocks were declined, the ADR maintained 1.44 times, in the overall Nifty stocks, especially in Nifty50 stocks, the ADR has been maintained at 1.86 times with 162 advances and 87 declines, this data infers that the good buying seen in over all stocks. 

F&O Cues: The Nifty futures was settled at premium by 30.90 points points from the last week premium level 37.15 points, the Nifty Futures Open Interest-OI seen at 9934275 when compares with the last week level i.e.,11205975. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) seen at 0.70, the  maximum PUT open interest was seen in at 15100 strike price and CALL open interest seen in 15400 strike price, it indicates that, the Nifty may take support this week 15100 and 15400 may act as strong resistance, above 15400, then next hurdle seen at 15600 and any weakness below 15100, then 14900 are possible down side support levels.

This week Nifty Trend: The Nifty index may take support at 15100-15050, any further down move below 15050 then, the Index may re-visit 14985-14885-14790 levels in the near term. On the other hand the immediate resistance seen at 15205-15245, if the Index moves above 15245 then, it may try to re-test 15285-15336-15385-15431 levels.  

Special Mention: It seems, Covid further developments and India Inc. Q4 remaining results are set the further direction on the Nifty Index movement, the Nifty could test 15245-15431 levels in the near term, further strong move above 15431, then the Index may test 15600-15780 levels. On the other hand 15100-15050 may act as strong support, below 15050 then the Index may re-visit 14800-14640-14450 on the lower side. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said that it would transfer a surplus of Rs 99,122 crore, this is a huge positive for the economy, as it gives levers for the government to front-end spending especially towards infrastructure growth. The amount transferred is higher than market expectation. So, it will be taken positively by the market. The country is staring at a higher fiscal deficit so any inflow is good news.

Tading Strategy: The Investor/trader, who re-invested near 14800-14600 in Nifty50 stocks, start partial profit booking at 15300-15500 levels or 10-20% return on the stocks invested.

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Wishing you for a safe and secured with profitable trading