For the weekend 03rd Dec'21-Friday... Updated on 28.11.21, Sunday-10.35 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on a positive note at 17796.25 on Monday, the Index made a weekly high on the same day 17805.25 and unable to continue the up move then, throughout the week the sell-off continiued, made a weekly low 16985.70 on Friday and closed the week at 17026.45 on a negative note with a huge weekly loss -738.35 points, i.e., -4.16%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, almost all the major sectoral indices ended in a negative note, except the Nifty Pharma & Nifty Healthcare,  on the negative side, the Nifty Auto Index leading with a weekly loss -8.41%, followed by the Nifty Realty lost -6.47%, Nifty Financial Services lost -5.33%, Nifty Bank lost -5.14%, Nifty IT lost -3.89%, Nifty FMCG lost -3.39%, Nifty Infra lost -3.36%, Nifty Energy lost -1.87% and Nifty Metal lost -1.85%. On the other hand, the Nifty Pharma & Nifty Healthcare gained by 2.34% & 2.22%, respectively. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on a negative note with a weekly loss -4.32% as well as, the Nifty Smallcap Index also, closed on a negative note with a weekly loss -2.41%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week, continued as a net seller in the Equity segment, this week they sold to the tune of Rs.21124.95 crore on the net basis; but, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.10934.76 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not.

USD vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $74.31, made a weekly low $74.27 on the opening move; thereafter, it moved up and made a weekly high $75.11 on Friday and closed $74.98 with a weekly gain 0.67, i.e., 0.90%. This week, the USD vs INR should move above $75.01-75.11-75.13, if moves and sustain above $75.13 then, the USD may re-test $75-20-75.27-75.34-75.45-75.66 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves below $74.92-74-86 then, it may re-visit $74.78-74.69-74.58-74.46-74.30-74.17-74.02 levels in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front  except the Covid19 new variant Omicron development as well as, on the domestic front except, the Q2(Jul-Sep'21) GDP data and remaining Q2 (Jul-Sep'21) corporate earnings this week, already major top Nifty50 companies announced their Q2 numbers.

Q2-(Jul-Sep'2021) Earnings: The India Inc. Q2(Jul-Sep'21) corporate results, so far 3811 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q2 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit has been maintaining on the positive zone by 37.50% when compared with last quarter, i.e., the Net Profit of these 3811 companies were at Rs.238,878.70 crore, as against in the Q1 (Apr-Jun'21) the Net profit seen Rs.173,679.10 crore. On the other hand, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth 54.60%, last year these 3811 companies made a Net profit Rs.154,529.60 crore. Almost all major Corporates declared their Q2 results, this week other midcap/small cap companies are expected to declare their Q2 results.

Covid19: The Covid-19 has continuously been witnessed a downtrend, as of today the country seen everyday covid positive below 10k, the number of active cases now at 105,691 the death toll rose to 468,554, the daily death rate moved up above 600 in a day. As on date the total vaccination status stood around 121.95 crore on that, the first dose numbers are 78.19 crore and second dose 43.76 crore. The Covid-19 highly infectious new variant Omicron has been identified in South Africa, found in several countries, jitter across the global countries and they are takeing strict measures to control the spread by banning the passengers from South Africa and near by countries, we must wait and watch how it develops in the ensuing days.

Crude Oil: Crude Oil price has moved down from $79.20 to $67.45 per barrel with downward bias and hovering near $71 and USD vs INR also, trading at $75 hence, the domestic Petrol & Diesel prices selling without major changes in the last few weeks.

Price Earnings & India Vix: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has come down from the last week levels, i.e., 24.51 times and settled on Friday at 23.49 times, this is due to the, ongoing short term price correction and Q2 good performance of the India Inc. The India Vix (Volatility Index), last week has moved up till 21.39 and settled on Friday at 20.80. It seems, this week the intra volatility may be in a high note, if the Vix sustain above 19-20.

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio & Average Daily Volume(ADV): Market breadth, in the overall NSE listed stocks, last week seen in a negative zone, out of 2120 stocks traded daily on an average basis, 4802 stocks advanced and 5477 stocks declined, the ADR maintained 0.88 times; also, the Nifty50 stocks ADR has seen in a negative zone at 0.58 times with 91 advances and 158 declines, this data infers that, more selling pressure seen in the Nifty50 stocks rather than NSE listed stocks, also the Nifty Bank Index ADR has moved down to the negative zone at 0.58 times with 22 advances & 38 declines.

F&O Cues & PCR (Put/Call Ratio): The Nifty Futures last week settled at a premium 25.70 points from the previous week premium level 28.10 points, the Nifty Futures Open Interest-OI as on Friday at 10849550 i.e.,216991 contracts, when compared with the last week levels 9860850 i.e., 197217 contracts. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) has moved up from the last week level at 0.83 to 0.96, the maximum open interest seen in 16800-16600 PUT and 17200-17300 CALL options, it indicates the Nifty may take support 16800-16600 levels and may face strong resistance at 17200-17300 levels, further weakness only below 16600 levels, likewise any further up move is possible only if, the index moves and close above 17300 levels, this week.

This week Nifty Trend: The coming week, the index may see some short term pull back till 17150-17300, if fails to sustain above 17300 then, it may face more down side selling pressure, due to the Covid-19 highly infectious new variant Omicron, it spooked the world stock market on Friday, the FIIs vigrously selling in the Indian Equity market and we should wait and watch the worldwide spread of this virus. By considering these factors, the macro and micro data; I, conclude the weekly outlook that, the Nifty Index on Monday may open on a positive note at 17060-17160, subject to the Asian indices movement, if moves avove 17160 then, the pull back rally may try to lift the index till 17215-17275-17350-17450-17600-17800 levels. On the other hand, if the Index fails to move above 17060-17160-17215 and moves below 17030-16985 then, it may try to re-visit 16905-16885-16765-16700-16660-16515 levels in the near term. 

This week Nifty Bank Trend: Last week Nifty Bank opened at 38232.15, on opening move, it made a weekly high 38241; thereafter, it moved down, made a weekly  low 35904.10 and closed 36025.50, this week, the Index must take support 36000-35900 levels, any weakness below 35900 then, it may try to re-visit 35650-35450-35380-35050-34770 levels. On the other hand, any pull back rally near 36180-36370 then, the Index  may try to re-test 36510-36660-36870-37110-37890-38240 levels. 

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader those who booked profit near 18200 levels, try to invest near 17000-16700 levels in the Nifty50 stocks on a short to medium term perspective to gain 5-10%.

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