For the weekend 17th Dec'21-Friday... Updated on 12.12.21, Sunday-6.03 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on a negative note at 17209.05 on Monday, it made a weekly low on the same day 16891.70 and moved up throughout the week, made a weekly high 17534.35 on Friday and closed the week at 17511.30 on a positive note with a weekly gain 314.60 points, i.e., 1.83%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, the major sectoral indices closed on a positive note except, Nifty Healthcare, on the positive side, the Nifty Metal Index lead with a weekly gain 4.94%, followed by the Nifty Realty gained 4.65%, Nifty Auto gained 2.70%, Nifty Bank gained 2.51%, Nifty Financial Services gained 2.17%, Nifty FMCG gained 1.84%, Nifty Infra 1.73%, Nifty Energy 0.74%, Nifty IT gained 0.34%, and Nifty Pharma gained marginally by 0.17%. On the other hand, the Nifty Healthcare lost -0.47%, Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on a positive note with a weekly gain 3%, as well as, the Nifty Smallcap Index also, closed on a positive note with a weekly gain 3.92%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week, continued as a net seller in the Equity segment, this week they sold to the tune of Rs.9203.47 crore on the net basis; but, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.7212.34 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not.

USD vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $75.28, made a weekly low $75.12 on the opening move; thereafter, it moved up and made a weekly high $75.88 on Friday and closed $75.73 with a weekly gain 0.33, i.e., 0.44%. This week, the USD vs INR should move above $75.88-75.95, if moves and sustain above $75.95 then, the USD may re-test $76 08-76.15-76.20-76.28-76.35 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves below $75.65-75.52 then, it may re-visit $75.40-75.35-75.29-75.21-75.11-74.91 levels in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front except US FED meet; as well as, on the domestic front, the Annual Inflation Data, WPI monthly Inflation data and remaining Q2 (Jul-Sep'21) corporate earnings this week, already all major top  companies announced their Q2 numbers, except some of the corporates yet to announce their results.

Q2-(Jul-Sep'2021) Earnings: The India Inc. Q2(Jul-Sep'21) corporate results, so far 4050 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q2 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit has been maintaining on the positive zone by 37.60% when compared with last quarter, i.e., the Net Profit of these 4050 companies were at Rs.238,474.80 crore, as against in the Q1 (Apr-Jun'21) the Net profit seen Rs.173,311.90 crore. On the other hand, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth 54.50%, last year these 4050 companies made a Net profit Rs.154,3336.70 crore. Almost all major Corporates declared their Q2 results, this week other midcap/small cap companies are expected to declare their Q2 results.

Covid19: The Covid-19 has continuously been witnessed a downtrend, as of today the country seen everyday covid positive below 9k, the number of active cases now at 92,281 the death toll rose to 475,434, the daily death rate has come down to 500 in a day. As on date the total vaccination status stood around 132.94 crore on that, the first dose numbers are 81.45 crore and second dose 51.49 crore. The Covid-19 highly infectious new variant Omicron has been identified in South Africa, found in several countries, jitter across the global countries, including some cases found in India. According to the World Health Organisation, the new variant is less lethal but likely to spread at a higher speed hence, we must wait and watch the further development.

Crude Oil: Crude Oil price has moved up from $65 to $72.30 per barrel with upward bias and hovering near $72 and USD vs INR also, trading above $75 hence, the domestic Petrol & Diesel prices selling without major changes for  more than a month.

Price Earnings & India Vix: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has moved up from the last week levels, i.e., 23.73 times and settled on Friday at 24.15 times, this is due to the Nifty Index pull back rally from the lowest level to 17500 and Q2 good performance of the India Inc. The India Vix (Volatility Index), last week has moved down from 18.45 and settled on Friday at 16.06. It seems, this week the intra volatility may be in a moderate level between 14-18.

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio & Average Daily Volume(ADV): Market breadth, in the overall NSE listed stocks, last week turned to the positive zone, out of 2207 stocks traded daily on an average basis, 6319 stocks advanced and 4364 stocks declined, the ADR maintained 1.45 times; also, the Nifty50 stocks ADR has seen in a positive zone at 1.22 times with 137 advances and 112 declines, this data infers that, some value buying seen in both Nifty50 and NSE listed stocks, also the Nifty Bank Index ADR has moved up to the positive zone at 1.40 times with 35 advances & 25 declines.

F&O Cues & PCR (Put/Call Ratio): The Nifty Futures last week settled at a premium 48.05 points from the previous week premium level 42.30 points, the Nifty Futures Open Interest-OI as on Friday at 11091250 i.e.,221825 contracts, when compared with the last week levels 11289350 i.e., 227787 contracts. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) has come down from the last week level at 0.96 to 0.91, the maximum open interest seen in 17400 PUT and 17600 CALL option, it indicates the Nifty may take further direction if moves and closes above 17600 levels to test 17800-17950 levels, further weakness only below 17400 levels, the index moves below then, may re-visit 17100-17000 levels.

This week Nifty Trend: The coming week, the Nifty may take further direction based on the global cues such as, the out come of US FED meet, Indian domestic inflation data and Covid-19 highly infectious new variant Omicron further developments may dictate terms on the stock market, by considering these factors, the macro and micro data; I, conclude the weekly outlook that, the Nifty Index on Monday may open on a positive note at 17535-17565-17610, subject to the Asian indices movement, if moves above 17610 then, the pull back rally may try to lift the index till 17665-17725-17790-17830-17850-17900 levels. On the other hand, if the Index fails to move above 17535-17565-17610 and moves below 17490-17405 then, it may try to re-visit 17350-17295-17255-17215-17160-17140-17045-16890-16780 levels in the near term. 

This week Nifty Bank Trend: Last week Nifty Bank opened in 36252. on opening move, it made a weekly low 35696.75 thereafter, it moved up, made a weekly high 37897.75 and closed 37105.65, this week, the Nifty Bank Index must move above  37140-37240-37350 levels, further move above 37350-37400 then, it may try to re-test 37470-37600-37740-37810-37890-38195-38240-35390-38560 levels. On the other hand, if the Index unable to move above 37400, further down move below 36860 then, the Index may try to re-visit 36820-36547-36350-36030-35700 levels. 

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader those who invested near 17000-16800 levels, try to book partial profit near 17400-17600 levels and wait for further dips to re-invest 16800-16600-16350 levels in the top Nifty 100 stocks on a short to medium term perspective to gain 5-10-15%.

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