For the weekend 10th Dec'21-Friday... Updated on 05.12.21, Sunday-3.33 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on a positive note at 17055.80 on Monday, the Index made a weekly low on the same day 16782.40 and moved up throughout the week, made a weekly high 17489.80 on Friday and closed the week at 17196.70 on a positive note with a weekly gain 170.25 points, i.e., 1.00%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, the major sectoral indices were given mixed performance,  on the positive side, the Nifty IT Index lead with a weekly gain 3.59%, followed by the Nifty Metal gained 1.29%, Nifty Financial Services gained 0.94%, Nifty Realty 0.71%, Nifty Bank gained 0.48% and Nifty Auto closed with a marginal gain by 0.27%. On the other hand, the Nifty Healthcare lost -2.86%, Nifty Pharma lost -2.45%, Nifty Energy lost -0.39% and Nifty FMCG & Nifty Intra lost marginally -0.13% & -0.12% respectively. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on a positive note with a weekly gain -1.25%, as well as, the Nifty Smallcap Index also, closed on a positive note with a weekly gain 0.52%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week, continued as a net seller in the Equity segment, this week they sold to the tune of Rs.3356.17 crore on the net basis; but, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.16450.10 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not.

USD vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $74.99, made a weekly low $74.76 on the opening move; thereafter, it moved up and made a weekly high $75.69 on Friday and closed $75.27 with a weekly gain 0.29, i.e., 0.39%. This week, the USD vs INR should move above $75.32-75.41, if moves and sustain above $75.41 then, the USD may re-test $75.49-75.53-75.58-75.69-75.78-75.89 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves below $75.22-75.15 then, it may re-visit $75.11-75.04-74.97-74.93-74.86-74.83-74.76 levels in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front except the Covid19 new variant Omicron further development as well as, on the domestic front, the RBI Policy meet, which is scheduled on 08th Dec-Wednesday and IIP data, whihc is expected on 10th Dec-Friday and remaining Q2 (Jul-Sep'21) corporate earnings this week, already all major top  companies announced their Q2 numbers, except some of the corporates yet to announce their results.

Q2-(Jul-Sep'2021) Earnings: The India Inc. Q2(Jul-Sep'21) corporate results, so far 3841 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q2 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit has been maintaining on the positive zone by 37.60% when compared with last quarter, i.e., the Net Profit of these 3841 companies were at Rs.238,531.20 crore, as against in the Q1 (Apr-Jun'21) the Net profit seen Rs.173,379 crore. On the other hand, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth 54.60%, last year these 3841 companies made a Net profit Rs.154,308.80 crore. Almost all major Corporates declared their Q2 results, this week other midcap/small cap companies are expected to declare their Q2 results.

Covid19: The Covid-19 has continuously been witnessed a downtrend, as of today the country seen everyday covid positive below 9k, the number of active cases now at 99,155 the death toll rose to 473,226, the daily death rate moved up above 2500 in a day. As on date the total vaccination status stood around 127.62 crore on that, the first dose numbers are 79.91 crore and second dose 47.71 crore. The Covid-19 highly infectious new variant Omicron has been identified in South Africa, found in several countries, jitter across the global countries, including some cases found in India. According to the World Health Organisation, the new variant is less lethal but likely to spread at a higher speed.

Crude Oil: Crude Oil price has moved down from $72.90 to $62.50 per barrel with downward bias and hovering near $67 and USD vs INR also, trading above $75 hence, the domestic Petrol & Diesel prices selling without major changes in the last one month.

Price Earnings & India Vix: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has moved up from the last week levels, i.e., 23.49 times and settled on Friday at 23.73 times, this is due to the Nifty Index pull back rally from the lowest level to 17500 and Q2 good performance of the India Inc. The India Vix (Volatility Index), last week has moved down from 20.80 and settled on Friday at 18.45. It seems, this week the intra volatility may be in a high note, if the Vix sustain above 18-19.

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio & Average Daily Volume(ADV): Market breadth, in the overall NSE listed stocks, last week turned to the positive zone, out of 2145 stocks traded daily on an average basis, 5347 stocks advanced and 5008 stocks declined, the ADR maintained 1.07 times; also, the Nifty50 stocks ADR has seen in a positive zone at 1.11 times with 131 advances and 118 declines, this data infers that, some value buying seen in both Nifty50 and NSE listed stocks, also the Nifty Bank Index ADR has moved up to the positive zone at 1.11 times with 31 advances & 28 declines.

F&O Cues & PCR (Put/Call Ratio): The Nifty Futures last week settled at a premium 42.30 points from the previous week premium level 25.70 points, the Nifty Futures Open Interest-OI as on Friday at 11289350 i.e.,227787 contracts, when compared with the last week levels 10849550 i.e., 216991 contracts. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) has been maintaining at the same last week level at 0.96, the maximum open interest seen in 17400 PUT and CALL options, it indicates the Nifty may take further direction if moves and closes above 17400 levels to test 17600-17950 levels, further weakness only below 17160 levels, the index may re-visit 17000-16780 levels.

This week Nifty Trend: The coming week, RBI bi-mothly policy meet outcome, global cues and  Covid-19 highly infectious new variant Omicron further developments may dictate terms on the stock market, by considering these factors, the macro and micro data; I, conclude the weekly outlook that, the Nifty Index on Monday may open on a positive note at 17220-17250-17285, subject to the Asian indices movement, if moves above 17285 then, the pull back rally may try to lift the index till 17325-17375-17410-17490-17575-17600-17680-17730-17805 levels. On the other hand, if the Index fails to move above 17250-17285 and moves below 17160-17120 then, it may try to re-visit 17050-17000-16950-16865-16780-16700-16660-16540 levels in the near term. 

This week Nifty Bank Trend: Last week Nifty Bank opened at 36224.45, on opening move, it made a weekly low 35327.90 thereafter, it moved up, made a weekly high 36844 and closed 36197.15, this week, the Index must take support 36085-35910 levels, any weakness below 35900 then, it may try to re-visit 35795-35685-35510-35440-35330-35190-35050-34770 levels. On the other hand, any up move is possible only above 36550-36850 if, move above 36850 then, the Index may try to re-test 36995-37240-37445-37670-37890 levels. 

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader those who invested near 17000-16800 levels, try to book partial profit near 17400-17600 levels and wait for further dips to re-invest 16800-16600-16350 levels in the top Nifty 100 stocks on a short to medium term perspective to gain 5-10-15%.

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