04.07.2025-Friday, 08.30 am

Good Morning all... 

What has happened yesterday? Nifty Index, opened on a positive note at 25505, on the opening move it made a high 25587.50 further it moved down, made a day low 25384.35 and closed on a negative note at 25405.30 with an intra loss 48.10 points, i.e., -0.19%.

What will happen today? 

Nifty Index: Today, we expect the Nifty may open near 25450-25380-25355 levels; if open, trade and sustain above 25450 then, the index may re-test 25485-25525-25545-25585-25610-25640-25670-25720-25760 levels. On the other hand, the immediate support lies at 25315-25255 if, the Index moves below 25255 then, it may try to re-visit 25220-25175-25145-25120-25090 levels.

Special Mention: Yesterday, Nifty Index opened with positive note, unable to sustain above 25600 tried for the last three trading sessions, but Nifty option weekly expiry high volatility ruled and swung the index  between 25580-25380 and closed just below our threshold suppot levels i.e., 25470. Today, the Nifty index must trade, sustain and closes above 25585-25670; it may continue the pull back rally to re-test 25760-25830-26020 levels in the near term. On the other hand, the immediate support seen at 25315-25220, further weakness below 25220 then, the Index may try to re-visit 25090-24950-24735 levels in the near term. Let see how the Index opens today near 25450-25380-25355 levels.

Nifty Bank Index: Yesterday, Nifty Bank Index opened on a positive note at 57050.40 on the opening move, it made a high 57193.25 thereafter, it moved down, made a low 56764.10 and closed on a negative note at 56791.95 with an intra loss 207.25 points, i.e., -0.36%,  today Nifty Bank Index must move and sustain above 56865-56930-57115 levels; if to do so, then it may try to test 57195-57310-57385-57445-57525-57615-57845 levels. On the other hand, any weakness near 56865-56930-57115 further, it moves below 56765-56680 then, the Index may re-visit 56550-56425-56300-56140 levels. 

Sensex Index: Yesterday, Sensex opened on a positive note at 83540.74 on the opening move, it made a day high 83850.09 thereafter, it moved down and made a low 83186.74 and closed on a negative note at 83239.47 with an intra loss 170.22 points, i.e., -0.20%, today Sensex must move and sustain above 83355-83440 levels; if to do so, then it may try to re-test 83535-83640-83750-83830-84000-84100-84150-84320 levels. On the other hand, any weakness near 83355-83440 further, it moves below 83185-83120-82995 then, the Index may re-visit 82870-82740-82660-82580-82440-82220-82025 levels.

PUT/CALL Ratio: Over all Nifty Index Put and Call ratio for 03rd Jul'25 stands at 0.86 with PUT open interest of 3639636 and CALL open interest of 4246039, when compared with previous day level of 0.78, normally the reading below 1 denotes weakness/bearish, above 1 denotes strength/bullish on the index.

FIIs/FPIs & DIIs Funds Flow on NSE, BSE and MSEI : Yesterday, FIIs/FPIs, continued as a net seller, they sold on the net basis to the tune of Rs.1481.19 Cr. On the other hand, DIIs continued as a net buyer they bought on the net basis to the tune of Rs.5012.95 Cr.

For the month of July, month to date FIIs/FPIs continued as a net seller, they sold Rs.1333.06 Cr., on the net basis and DIIs continued as a net buyer they bought on the net basis to the tune of Rs.5140.82 Cr.

INDIA's Macro Data:-

On 01st July'25-Tuesday, the HSBC Manufacturing PMI data released for the month of Jun'25, it moved up to 58.40 from 58.20 i.e., May'25. Likewise, the HSBC Services PMI data for the month of June'25 released on 03rd Jul'25-Thursday, it moved up to 61.00 from 59.30 i.e., May'25.

The RBI MPC meet held on 06th Jun'25-Friday, the MPC has reduced the Repo rate by 50 BPS to 5.50% from the existing rate of 6.00%, also it has rdeuced the CRR-Cash Reserve Ratio by 100 BPS to 3% from 4%. 

GDP data for the Q4 ending Mar'25 released on 30th May'25-Friday, the GDP has moved up to 7.40% Vs.6.40% (Q3-Dec'24).

IIP data for May'25 released on 30th Jun'25-Monday, the Industrial production has come down to 1.20%; when compared to the Apr'25 level, i.e., 2.60%. 

Annual Inflation data for May'25 released on 12th Jun'25-Thursday, the inflation has come down to 2.82% from Apr'25 level i.e., 3.16%.

WPI Inflation data for the month of May'25 released on 16th Jun'25-Monday, it has come down further to 0.39% as against the Apr'25 level i.e.,0.85%.

Wishing you for a safe, secured and profitable trading.

DISCLAIMER:

The writing in the above daily market update should only be construed as guidance. I assert that any business or investment decisions should not be based purely on the information presented in the daily market update. As a Research Analyst, I will not be responsible for any losses incurred by a visitor/investor/client, as a result of decisions made based on any information given in the daily market update.

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